In the waning days of 2024, as the world braced for the start of the second Trump presidency, there was a theory making the rounds that went like this: Sure, economists said his agenda could spell disaster but there’s at least one institution that would be able rein in Trump’s worst instincts — Wall Street!

The stock market has been relatively muted since President Trump took office for his second term in January. The S&P 500 is now lower than it was on Inauguration Day, and other indexes more closely tied to the economy have also fallen.